Weak external demand is the biggest factor affecting foreign trade exports this year. The current global economy is showing a weak situation, the external trade environment is not optimized, and the overall momentum of world trade growth is still very weak, which will seriously drag down the global international trade demand, and the impact on China's exports will be self-evident. Recently, the US, Eurozone, and Japan PMI have all fallen sharply. In March, the PMI of Japan and the Eurozone were lower than the line of glory. US GDP has been in a downward trend since the second quarter of last year, and the economic growth rate has slowed down quarter by quarter. There are multiple indications that US consumer demand is weakening, and there are still uncertainties in the outcome of Sino-US trade negotiations, all of which will put more pressure on future Chinese exports. Therefore, improving the competitiveness of Chinese enterprises in the market will be the key to ensuring the steady improvement of foreign trade.
Analysis of the structure of China's export products in the first quarter, the export of mechanical and electrical products increased by 5.4% year-on-year, the ratio of total exports to 58.8%, and the total exports of seven major labor-intensive products such as clothing and toys increased by 6.5%, but the total value of exports The proportion fell to 18.2%, down 1.9 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous two years. The comparison of these data can reflect from one side that the structure of China's export products is continuing to be stable and upgraded. The price competitive advantage of labor-intensive products and low value-added products is showing a downward trend. At the same time, the increasing proportion of mechanical and electrical products means that China's economic operation and industrial structure adjustment continue to optimize the trend and the growth of high-quality growth momentum.
According to the latest statistics released by the General Administration of Customs, China's foreign trade surplus in the first quarter was 529.67 billion yuan, an increase of 75.2% year-on-year. China's trade surplus has been narrowed for three consecutive years, and the narrowing is expanding. The trade surplus in the first quarter has soared so that people from all walks of life are very surprised. According to international experience, the current account surplus control within 4% of GDP represents a balance of balance in the country's balance of payments. As the trade deficit of services has hedged the trade surplus of goods, China's current account surplus accounted for about 0.4%, indicating that China's foreign trade is operating in a good channel of balance of payments, which also reflects China's foreign trade restructuring. The results and the ever-increasing competitiveness of the corporate market.
From the analysis of China's export product market in the first quarter, China's foreign trade export market diversification capacity has been significantly enhanced, which will provide solid support for the goal of achieving stable and medium-quality foreign trade. The trade value between China and the United States has declined, but the pace of Sino-US trade negotiations is accelerating. It will improve the expectations and environment of the Sino-US foreign trade situation in the second half of the year. China’s exports to the United States will move out of the trend of “first suppression and then rise”. Sino-US trade friction will It is no longer the main risk of threatening exports. The full growth of exports to non-US markets reflects the effectiveness of Chinese companies in developing diversified markets. While exports to the EU and ASEAN have grown substantially, the import and export of countries along the “Belt and Road” has increased by 7.8%, which is 4.1 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade, and the proportion of total foreign trade has increased to 28.6%. These will lay a solid foundation for the steady growth of China's exports.
The trade surplus in the first quarter was “distributed” against the “shrinkage” of imports. It must be pointed out that the “shrinkage” of imports does not mean that the domestic market demand in China is weakening. General trade exports increased by 11.7%, and the growth of exports will inevitably lead to the growth of imports, indicating that the domestic demand capacity of enterprises is gradually strengthening. Import prices rose by 3.5% overall, and the prices of bulk commodities and resource products increased significantly, indicating that both the productive and consumer demand in the domestic market were quite strong. This trend will have a direct impact on the import and export of the second quarter after the end of the lag period of the subsequent domestic counter-cyclical control policies on the real economy, especially the import effect will be more significant. The trend of a small appreciation of the renminbi will also create conditions for further moderate relaxation of liquidity, thereby giving more substantial continuation momentum to improve economic growth and increase imports.
The impact and challenges of China's foreign trade will continue to exist due to complex external factors. In addition to weak external demand, global political risks and the continuation of trade protection will become the limiting factors affecting China's foreign trade. With the deepening of the structural reform of the supply side, the international market layout, domestic regional layout, commodity structure, business entities and trade methods of China's foreign trade have been continuously optimized, and the endogenous power has been continuously enhanced. The development of China's foreign trade stability and quality improvement still has strong support.